The 2017 Summer Movie Wager

I'm participating again in the Summer Movie Wager, a contest to see who can pick the closest predictions for the summer season of Domestic Box Office winners, which occurs between May 1st and August 30th. This is just for fun for me this year. Not for money or for winnings. 

Ok. So without further adieu, here's my 2017 Summer Movie Wager predictions from top to bottom!

1. Despicable Me 3

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

3. Transformers: The Last Knight

4. Cars 3

5. PotC: Dead Men Tell No Tales

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming

7. Wonder Woman

8. War for the Planet of the Apes

9. The Mummy

10. Valerian and tCoaTP

Dark Horses:

Dunkirk

The Dark Tower

Baywatch

Here’s how they score the wager:

• Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:

• 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
• 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
• 5 points if it was two spots away
• 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
• 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.

Last year, I got 46 points.

I got…

Two perfect 10 point scores in Suicide Squad & Ghostbusters=20 points. As well as 7 points each for Captain America: Civil War, The Secret Life of Pets & X-Men: Apocalypse (1 place away)=21 points. And lastly, 5 additional points for Finding Dory (2 places away)=5 points.

20+21+5=46 points. 

This is better than the year before, which was a deplorable 33 points, but not as good as my first year participating in 2014, which was 66 points! 

Hopefully I’ll do much better this year, even though it's hard to gauge how much the public will like the Superhero blockbusters this year, or the greying Pirates or Transformers franchises. Only time will tell..

Wanna participate? So what films are on YOUR list?


Update (as of July 18th):
Current List of Biggest Summer 2017 Movies by Domestic Box Office
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - $386mil
2. Wonder Woman - $381mil
3. Spider-Man Homecoming - $212mil
4. Despicable Me 3 - $191mil
5. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - $170mil
6. Cars 3 - $140mil
7. Transformers 7 - $125mil
8. The Mummy - $79mil
9. Baby Driver - $74mil
10. Alien Covenant - $73mil

I expect Spider-Man: Homecoming, & Despicable Me 3 to continue to push upward, but not to overtake Wonder Woman or Guardians, and for War for the Planet of the Apes to get into this list very soon. I also expect Dunkirk & Valerian to come onto this list as soon as they are released, and to continue to push The Mummy, Baby Driver & Alien Covenant off of this list. While I don't expect them to make a lot of money, though, since they will keep each other down with a similar viewing demographic. 

I can't know exactly how well these two new films that haven't been released yet will do, but I suspect that at least War for the Planet of the Apes should go much higher with great legs due to the good word of mouth (I'm expecting around $110mil). And I think a lot of the films that are currently under about the $70 mil mark will get pushed out entirely. And I expect Dunkirk & Valerian to get about $100 mil each. This leaves me with a new projection...

1. Wonder Woman - 3
2. Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 2 - 10
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 3
4. Despicable Me 3 - 3
5. Pirates of the Caribbean 5 - 10
6. Cars 3 - 5
7. Transformers: The Last Knight - 3
8. War for the Planet of the Apes - 10
9. Dunkirk - 1
10. Valerian and the CoaTP - 13

This means I would get about 61 points if I got Guardians, War, Valerian & Pirates dead on. Thats actually pretty great but it really depends on these four being exact.

I suppose we will see at the beginning of September, wont we? ;)

My 2017 Oscar Awards Predictions

Here comes the 89th Annual Academy Awards. Will there be less dumb jokes, less virtue signaling, and less inappropriate political posturing? You better bet your wagon there will be just the right amount of that nonsense. Which is right over the border into "Too Much". Will Hollywood continue to prove that they are still out of touch with the public? Of course they will. But we still enjoy all the awkward (often racist and sexist) attempts at humor, the paper-thin failed attempts at humility from even the best actors on the globe, and the 'almost-correct' awards for making well-crafted cinema. C 'est la vie!

So, BRING IT ON!

I will list the 2017 Nominations first, and then afterwards, give my predictions. I won't make a prediction for every category, but I will for most categories. So, here they are... the Nominees!

2017 Nominations

Best Picture:

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water 

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling - La La Land

Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington - Fences

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Isabella Hupert - Elle

Ruth Negga - Loving

Natalie Portman - Jackie

Emma Stone - La La Land

Meryl Streep - Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Mahershala Ali - Moonlight

Jeff Bridges - Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel - Lion

Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Viola Davis - Fences

Naomie Harris - Moonlight

Nicole Kidman - Lion

Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

Best Animated Feature:

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life As A Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

Best Cinematography:

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence

Best Costume Design:

Allied

Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie

La La Land

Best Directing:

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Best Documentary (Feature):

Fire At Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made In America

13th

Best Documentary (Short):

Extremis

4.1 Miles

Joe's Violin

Watani: My Homeland

The White Helmets

Best Film Editing:

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight

Best Foreign Language Film:

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman

Tanna

Toni Erdman

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

A Man Called Ove

Star Trek Beyond

Suicide Squad

Best Music (Original Score):

Jackie

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Passengers

Best Music (Original Song):

Audition (The Fools Who Dream) - La La Land

Can't Stop The Feeling - Trolls

City of Stars - La La Land

The Empty Chair - Jim: The James Foley Story

How Far I'll Go - Moana

Best Production Design:

Arrival

Fantastic Beasts and Where To Find Them

Hail, Caesar!

La La Land

Passengers

Best Short Film (Animated):

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider & Cigarettes

Pearl 

Piper

Best Short Film (Live Action):

Ennemis Interieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights

Sing

Timecode

Best Sound Editing:

Arrival

Deepwater Horizon

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Sully

Best Sound Mixing:

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Visual Effects:

Deepwater Horizon

Doctor Strange

The Jungle Book

Kubo and the Two Strings

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

Best Writing (Original Screenplay):

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Okay! Here it is! My predictions for the 2017 Academy Awards!...

My Predicted Winners for 2017:

Best Actor in a Leading Role:

Denzel Washington - Fences

Best Actress in a Leading Role:

Emma Stone - La La Land

Best Actor in a Supporting Role:

Dev Patel - Lion

Best Actress in a Supporting Role:

Viola Davis - Fences

Best Animated Feature:

Zootopia

Best Cinematography:

Arrival

Best Costume Design:

Jackie

Best Directing:

La La Land

Best Documentary (Feature):

I Am Not Your Negro

Best Film Editing:

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Foreign Language Film:

A Man Called Ove

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Suicide Squad

Best Music (Original Score):

La La Land

Best Music (Original Song):

City of Stars - La La Land

Best Production Design:

Arrival

Best Sound Editing:

Hacksaw Ridge

Best Sound Mixing:

La La Land

Best Visual Effects:

The Jungle Book

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay):

Moonlight

Best Writing (Original Screenplay):

Manchester by the Sea

and last but not least...

Best Picture: 
La La Land

Let me know what your predictions will be before the event, and we can compare our scores! Happy Oscar Awards Night on Feb 26th Live at 7pm Eastern, 4pm Pacific on ABC!

Here is the link to the live feed which will only be active during the event. 

http://oscar.go.com/live. 

Jon's Top Sixteen Films of 2016!

Finally! My top films of this terrible year that did away with so many of our talented celebrities! Suck it 2016! But you know what? We did have some pretty great films this year! So here they are!

Here are the Top Sixteen Films of 2016, according to me. No, I haven't seen every critically acclaimed film of this year. But I still maintain that watching a great number of films, as I do, is a must for me as a filmmaker. So, that's what I do. 

And my research wouldn't be complete without attending the Movie of the Month every month and watching additional films that inspire me and inform me on what good filmmaking looks like. Thank you to everyone who has participated in my film watching and filmmaking journey this year! Next year we have ever more film fun planned!

So without further delay, here's my Top 16 Films of 2016, along with films of merit!

1. Hacksaw Ridge

2. La La Land

3. Moana

4. Rogue One

5. Arrival

6. Captain America: Civil War

7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

8. The Nice Guys

9. The Jungle Book

10. 10 Cloverfield Lane

11. Zootopia

12. Deadpool

13. Doctor Strange

14. Office Christmas Party

15. Finding Dory

16. Passengers

2016 Films of Merit

These films did well. But they didn't make the final cut.

Pete's Dragon, Deepwater Horizon, The Magnificent Seven, The Accountant, Midnight Special, Suicide Squad, The Neon Demon, The Girl on the Train, The BFG, Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children. 

Films I Still Haven't Seen From 2016, Darnit

I need to see these films. I want to see these films. Once I see these films it might change this list. But I still haven't seen these films yet.

Hell or High Water, Sing Street, Green Room, Kubo and the Two Strings, The Birth of a Nation, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, The Conjuring 2, Hunt for the Wilderpeople, Free State of Jones, Swiss Army Man, The Secret Life of Pets, Captain Fantastic, The Light Between Oceans, and American Honey.

Welp that's it 2016! Now it is time to make more films and watch more films in 2017! Have a happy, healthy New Year! And we will see you on the flipside!  :D

Davina Reid Cast in Lead Role for "Floridiana"

My first casting is a shoe-in. In fact, Davina Reid has been in mind from the very beginning of the writing process for "Floridiana". She helped inspire me to create the lead character "Terra", one of four characters that make Floridiana so powerful and personal for me.

Davina has a whole lotta credits and experience, not just in film but in theater as well. So, we are very honored to have her as the very first actor cast in the feature film "Floridiana". Thank you for your tirelessness and kindness to our little production!

Here are her IMDb credits.
Clown Demented (2010) - When I first worked with Davina
Reginald (2011)
Sleeping With Frank (2011)
Blonde's Girl's (2011)
Christmas Snow Angels (2011)
Mr. Engagement (2012)
The Eyes of God (2013)
Pawnz (2013)
The Bench (2015)
American Hostage (2015)
True Crime With Aphrodite Jones (TV) (2015)
Murder on Frog Pond Drive (2015)

The “Floridiana” Short (aka. To Make a Long Story Short)

Hello my long neglected Floridiana Fans!

Let not yourself be troubled, the film project is still chugging along. Not as quickly as I’d like, but it is what it is. And one of the larger parts of my goal-set on the way to making the Floridiana feature is coming to a head very soon... the Floridiana short film! 

“But I thought you were going to make a feature silly! Not a short!”

Yes, this is true. However, I’ve learned that in the indy filmmaking world, part of building support and finding the funding we need to make an acceptable feature is making a proof of concept (in the form of a short or a trailer) BEFORE shooting the feature. This CAN help build this kind of support you need and can make your quality soar much farther than what otherwise would be possible. Don't start worrying that this is me realizing I've bit off more than I can chew and I'm backtracking! By no means. I already knew I was way in over my head ages ago! LOL! I know that this is just part of the game as an indy filmmaker. There is however, tons to learn from this.

For example, I've seen lots of indy projects find Kickstarter funding 'finally', but only AFTER running many larger, failed campaigns which were too ambitious for their team to support. Either they didn’t have the fanbase, or the amount they were asking for seemed to be exorbitant or unreachable for some reason. So, what do they do? They ask for less. And eventually as they pare their budget down they finally get funding. But it's barely enough to make a passable film. 

The fact is films are incredibly expensive, that is, if you want to be in the ‘professional film market’. But in the indy market it can be extremely cheap. And unless you have the equipment already, or the cast and crew base already established who are willing to work for free, making this micro-budget film is near impossible. Because these films represent a commitment already made to invest thousands of your own dollars, as well as thousands of your own minutes, to a lifestyle or a side-business that is supported by other dollars, entirely independent of a film project’s dedicated investment funds. This is the only reason a micro-budget film of any consequence can be made… other dollars, such as investments in equipment, training, time, and human resources, are necessary, and often have already been made. Additionally, this, by itself, is no guarantee that this micro-budget film will have any sort of craft, talent, or sense of story embedded in the finished product. In fact, it is almost a sure thing that it will be devoid of it. Because good talent costs money. A sense of good craft takes time to develop. Costing months and often years of training and dedication. A good product will cost a great deal, no matter how you slice it.

So, how does one build an investor's confidence to take the plunge and invest in you, the filmmaker, to create a professional product? You must impress on them that you are a professional first. And the best way to do this is in the form of some high quality, professional product. Show them the good outcome. Show that proof that a high-quality, professional work can and will be created, and by doing so, show that if investment is made, an even better product can be produced as well. A short subject can accomplish this with a fraction of the cost of a feature.

And this model has already been followed numerous times. So, we can see that this is a common avenue by which directors and producers find more substantial funding. An example of this can be seen in this article here: http://bit.ly/2i9HoOX . And articles on shorts that have been or will be made into features are here: http://bit.ly/2huO2OJ & http://bit.ly/1gCRjD3 .

This is not a long shot. It's been happening for a long time in the film industry... 

To make “a long story short”: 1. Write the Feature, 2. Make a short, and then, 3. Make the Feature. 

So this is what I intend to do. I’ve clearly got the script finished already. But now I need to determine my plan to make, not just any random short, but a short film that exhibits the ‘proof of concept’ of the feature film idea very accurately. In other words, it gives a small taste of what the actual feature would look like, feel like, and be about. You can do this by making a traditional short, making a trailer, or making a proof of concept which contains the tone or showcases the main idea behind what inspires the feature film project. 

Is it the 'world-building', like a sci-fi/fantasy film might need? Or is it a new film production concept that inspires experimentation in the medium? Typically, though, a good feature isn’t formed around technical ideas. It’s formed around story and characters, just like any other successful feature film. Film investors know that their money will be best spent on good writing, huge talent, and competent directing, which will best help produce films with an emphasis on strong story and compelling characters, not on just new, fun ideas. But having both is definitely a plus. So, don’t leave out these new ideas. But, especially, don’t leave the story at home. Show it off as much as possible! But for now, do it in a short format. Get to the small grain of your idea and try to distill it into this short product.

So, for Floridiana, I will be writing, directing, and producing a trailer, and possibly an additional clip, showing an essential scene from the Floridiana feature script. The idea is to get the short to have the same tone, style, and quality I am aiming for for the feature film. If I can accomplish this, I just might have a chance to get this thing fully funded. And that would be an amazing feat! 

It would be an honor just to work on the short and clip with people. But to make the fully funded feature with my local filmmaking friends along-side would be just fantastic! In the very near future, I’ll be providing more details to get involved! 

Thanks for reading and being there for me! And soon, we might be on set really making stuff happen!!! Wish me luck!

Jon's 20 Most Anticipated Films of 2017

Maybe I'm a bit early on this most anticipated list. Maybe its because September is a slow month for movies so I decided to get excited for what's coming soon!

So, what about next year??

Here is my list of my 20 most anticipated films of 2017...

1. Bade Runner 2049

2. Star Wars VIII

3. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 2

4. Ghost in the Shell

5. Alien: Covenant

6. Dunkirk

7. Valerian and the City of the Thousand Planets

8. Wonder Woman

9. Spider-Man: Homecoming

10. Logan

11. Thor Ragnarok

12. Beauty and the Beast

13. The LEGO Batman Movie

14. John Wick: Chapter 2

15. Annihilation

16. Coco

17. World War Z 2

18. Kong: Skull Island

19. Justice League Part 1

20. The Mummy

The 2016 Summer Movie Wager: Results

The 2016 Summer Movie Wager has come to a close…

Here are the final standings for this very hard to predict year! Films that never showed up on my list made millions more than assumed, but mostly, there were quite a few duds that we all expected to do better! Such as Angry Birds, Pete’s Dragon, Alice Through the Looking Glass, Ice Age, The BFG, Warcraft & Ben-Hur.  

So, lets see how I did. Did I do better than last year? I hope so, because I didn't do too well last year. I got only 33 points last year, but I got 66 points the year before! Ok. So, lets see first what I wagered and then compare it to the actual numbers this year. What was my wager this time?? What did I think would be the BIGGEST films of this summer?

1. Captain America Civil War

2. The Secret Life of Pets

3. Finding Dory

4. Suicide Squad

5. X-Men Apocalypse

6. Angry Birds

7. TMNT 2

8. The Conjuring 2

9. Ghostbusters

10. Independence Day Resurgence 

Of course that's not exactly how it turned out. So let's look at the official results for The Highest Grossing Domestic Summer Films of 2016 (according to Box Office Mojo). 

Instead, we actually got...

1. Finding Dory - $482m  (2 points off)

2. Captain America Civil War - $408m  (1 point off)

3. The Secret Life of Pets - $359m  (1 point off)

4. Suicide Squad - $300m  (a perfect prediction!)

5. Jason Bourne - $156m  (not even on my list! oooops!)

6. X-Men Apocalypse - $155.4m  (1 point off)

7. Star Trek Beyond - $155m  (not on my list either! oooops!)

8. Central Intelligence - $127m  (not on my list again! oooops AGAIN!!)

9. Ghostbusters - $126.5m  (two perfect predictions so far!)

10. The Legend of Tarzan - $126.3m  (not on my list AT ALL AGAIN! Whoooops! LOL)

That's right. Finding Dory was the biggest movie of summer 2016! And we have only two different genres that reach above the $300m domestic line. Superhero films and Animated Family. Apparently, that's it!

And I feel like I didn't do too well this year. Lots of films not on my list at all!

So, whats my score? This leaves me with a total score of 

5+7+7+10+0+7+0+0+10+0 = 46 points!

It's not that great but at least it is better than 2 of the 5 people on the Slashfilm podcast who also do wagers every year! 

My Points Progression

2014=66

2015=33

2016=46

So I’d say its pretty acceptable! Maybe I should not just do a Summer Movie Wager every year, but also do a Spring Movie Wager, A Fall Movie Wager, and an Awards Season Movie Wager to see who wins more awards!! Could be fun! :D