My 2016 Oscar Predictions

Here are my predictions for this year's Academy Awards. At least those predictions I feel confident making. I never saw any of the shorts nominated, nor did I see any of the foreign language films. But I'm including most everything else. 

I'll mention the nominees first and then my predicted winner, while keeping who I think 'should' win to myself. 

So here they are! 

My 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions 

1. For Best Picture

Nominees:

• The Big Short
• Bridge of Spies
• Brooklyn
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight

Predicted Winner: The Revenant

Actual Winner: The Revenant

2. Best Director

Nominees:

• Adam McKay – The Big Short
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
• Lenny Abrahamson – Room
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight 

Predicted Winner: George Miller

Actual Winner: Alejandro G. Inarritu

3. Best Actress

Nominees:

• Cate Blanchett – Carol
• Brie Larson – Room
• Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
• Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

Predicted Winner: Brie Larson

Actual Winner: Brie Larson

4. Best Actor

Nominees:

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
• Matt Damon – The Martian
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Predicted Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio
Actual Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio

5. Best supporting Actress

Nominees:

• Leigh – The Hateful Eight
• Rooney Mara – Carol
• Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Predicted Winner: Alicia Vikander

Actual Winner: Alicia Vikander

6. Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

• Christian Bale – The Big Short
• Tom Hardy – The Revenant
• Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
• Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed

Predicted Winner: Mark Rylance
Actual Winner: Mark Rylance

7. Best Original Screenplay 

Nominees:

• Bridge of Spies
• Ex Machina
• Inside Out
• Spotlight
• Straight Outta Compton 

Predicted Winner: Spotlight 

Actual Winner: Spotlight 

8. Best Adapted Screenplay 

Nominees:

• The Big Short
• Brooklyn
• Carol
• The Martian
• Room

Predicted Winner: The Big Short

Actual Winner: The Big Short

9. Best Animated Feature 

Nominees:

• Anomalisa
• Boy & the World
• Inside Out
• Shaun the Sheep Movie
• When Marnie Was There

Predicted Winner: Inside Out

Actual Winner: Inside Out

10. Best Original Score

Nominees:

• Bridge of Spies
• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Actual Winner: The Hateful Eight

11. Best Sound Editing

Nominees:

• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Sicario
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: The Revenant 

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

12. Best Sound Mixing

Nominees:

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

13. Best Production Design

Nominees:

• Bridge of Spies
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

14. Best Cinematography 

Nominees:

• Carol
• The Hateful Eight
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• Sicario

Predicted Winner: The Revenant 

Actual Winner: The Revenant

15. Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Nominees:

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Predicted Winner: The Revenant 

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

16. Best Costume Design 

Nominees:

• Carol
• Cinderella
• The Danish Girl
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant

Predicted Winner: The Danish Girl

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

17. Best Film Editing

Nominees: 

• The Big Short
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• Spotlight
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

18. Best Visual Effects 

Nominees:

• Ex Machina
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Martian
• The Revenant
• Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Predicted Winner: Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Actual Winner: Mad Max: Fury Road

So out of the 18 predictions I made I got 11 right. Thats a ratio better than half. Not too shabby!

What were YOUR predictions?

Jon's 20 Most Anticipated Films of 2016

Here are the 20 films I am most anticipating in 2016! 

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

The first spin-off tale derived from the Star Wars universe is coming next December, and it is the story of the Rebel spies who captured the plans to the Death Star, many of them not surviving the operation. There are rumors of Darth Vader making an appearance in this one.

This picture of the team looks great, except, if you squint, Felicity Jones looks a little bit like a Hobbit about to journey to Mordor. That said, just that this film is happening is far beyond exciting for me, since the room for complete experimentation within the Star Wars universe will be at its most ripe. I hope there will be enough new things in this film to keep the audience looking forward, in the Star Wars universe, instead of constantly looking back.

2. Deadpool 

If you are unaware of the assassin in red, and this film's massively brilliant marketing campaign, you will soon be enlightened come this February. That is, if you are in the market to see a fun, irreverent, nasty, bloody, and ridiculously cynical superhero tale. I love seeing new things I've never seen before on the big screen, and this should be no exception. 

But don't look for some sophisticated, art film that you can watch with your cultured art-critic relative, nor should this be watched with your 12 year old in tow. It's pretty much the first "hard-R" superhero flick ever. And it's coming in less than a month!!!

3. Suicide Squad

I am convinced that this will be an unexpected hit for the superhero genre. For the first time, ever, a superhero story will feature the perspective of a team of villains. And these villains look incredibly interesting... besides Will Smith. I'm still not sure about him playing this sort of character. To me, he does best as a misunderstood loner who is a kindhearted hero. This is kinda the OPPOSITE of that. 

But David Ayer was definitely the right person to direct this film. I'm sure he will give us something very special here.

4. Doctor Strange 

Really? Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? Are you kidding me? And they got Derrickson to direct? I don't think this could get any better!! This film has threatened to go to the top of my list. But I am so in the bag for new experimental takes on genres and existing franchises that I placed these other films higher. But I know if those experiments don't do so well, that this film will come out on top. 

Not only is Marvel a proven studio to do this very thing... make incredible heroes come to life, while combining their own fun superhero universe with new, previously unexplored genres, they also get the very best in the industry to accomplish it. And this just looks so freaking cool!

5. Captain America: Civil War

Arguably, Captain America has become the very best superhero sub-franchise in history. And within the larger Marvel Cinematic Universe, he is positioned to challenge our allegiance to any and all other superheroes that have found their way into out hearts... such as Ironman.

But my only complaint so far, is that this looks so good (based on the trailers), that why the entire Avengers and MCU aren't weighing in and choosing sides is beyond me. I want to see Hulk, Thor and the Vision, weigh in on whose side they will be on. But I suppose this is because the trailers are so epic to me that relegating it to a simple Cap vs Metalman story seems pithy. Still, I'm sure this will be such a fun, exciting chapter in the First Avenger's story arc. Let's see who comes out on top!

6. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

I had been even more excited for this film, but the trailers disappointed me a bit. They revealed too much of the third act in my view, which really takes the wind out of the sails. But this should still be a really great film, and I am still hoping that Gal Gadot will portray Wonder Woman well, and that Batfleck will do the Bat Man justice. But I have no hope for Eisenberg as Luther. None at all.

7. The Neon Demon 

I am one of the biggest Nicholas Winding Refn fans out there. Even his work before 'Drive' compelled me. But, this looks like it is returning to the American well. The well that I believed made 'Drive' such a work of art. And I am very happy about it. 

Let's see if it can make critics and viewers happier than "Only God Forgives" did.

8. Assassin's Creed

Alright! Here we go with a video game-based film that threatens to change EVERYTHING! Just as Marvel brought superhero films into the mainstream by hiring some of the BEST actors in the business, I believe this very well may be the way to go with Fassbender in the "Assassin's Creed" movie! 

I can't wait to see a trailer for this film, because this could be an exciting, brutal, and action-packed interpretation of a video game hero!

9. Midnight Special

If anybody knows me well, they know I follow directors that aren't necessarily mainstream yet, but that do amazing work! Jeff Nichols, who also directed "Mud" and "Take Shelter," is one of those directors! And this is his first sci-fi.

Just as I was excited to see Rian Johnson's first sci-fi "Looper," I am also eagerly anticipating what looks to be a film inspired by some of the great 80's sci-fi/horror-tinged films out there, by directors such as Spielberg and Carpenter. It seems to have an elegance and a beauty to it. For me, it reminds me of E.T., Starman, and Close Encounters, just to name a few. And after I watch Batman v Superman in March, I plan on catching this one (notice the comic book the kid is reading on the poster?).


10. Warcraft

I've been waiting for Duncan Jones, maker of "Moon" the great breakout indie favorite of 2009, to return to sci-fi/fantasy, and this is it. Warcraft, along with Assassin's Creed are the two big video game-based franchises coming to the big screen. And I can't wait to see how well these will fare. 

So far the animation looks to be fairly well realized, skirting the edge between realism and a glossy 3D animation look. Let's see if they can pull off a win and make us all believe that the video game market can enter into Tinseltown with fanfare and cheers. Or will it go home again in defeat, hoping to fight again another day?


11. The BFG

So, who is in the mood to see Steven Spielberg return to the charm of his original sci-fi and fantasy kid's tales with a dark edge? YES??? Me too!!! Based on the Roald Dahl children's tale of the same name, The BFG appears to be just THAT. And the trailer proves that the dark children's tales like E.T., or Close Encounters of the Third Kind, or Jurassic Park are STILL part of his wheelhouse.

12. Ghostbusters

If you don't remember hearing Dan Aykroyd talk incessantly about how Ghostbusters is coming back ONE DAY. Well... now we don't have to hear him talk about it anymore. Here it comes, along with their signature 'hearse' and 4 'human beings'. Don't misunderstand, I'm not disturbed by the new ch-ch-ch-changes. But it does give me cause for concern. I'm not absolutely convinced this will be a 'Ghostbusters' film. But I am convinced that these super-talented ladies will do something supremely incredible, and really fun to watch.

13. Triple Nine 

So, you don't know what Triple 9 is? Just watch the trailers and come back to me. The talent in this film is incredible. And I love it when a director can challenge and revitalize a genre to do better. To me, this looks like what Michael Mann did with "Heat" years ago. If you haven't seen that either, give it a watch. This looks like a tragic tale of evil men and their evil deeds come back to bite 'em in the butt.

14. The Secret Life of Pets 

This looks so cute that every time I see the trailer (and Ive seen it probably 10 times already) I have to give a little *snicker*. Every time I see the trailer in the theater, the kids explode with laughter. And its for a good reason. This looks like another great example of the art of animation, at its best. 

15. Finding Dory 

And here comes a much loved classic "sequel". Something that "Incredibles" and "Up" fans would love to see. While I haven't been 'blown away' by the teaser, I am still eagerly awaiting what Pixar will do with this story. And since my daughter LOVES Nemo, I will definitely be watching this one!

16. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

To be completely honest, I was never a full Hogwart's convert. But, I did see the last film in IMAX and was blown away by much of the movie franchise. This, like the 'Rogue One' Star Wars story, looks to be a great opportunity to play in a fully-realized universe without being restricted by the original narrative. ...Which REALLY excites me! 

17. X-Men: Apocalypse 

I have been a little less-than impressed with the latest X-Men films. But, this looks like a very potent version of what the X-Men is about... and this just may prove to be the most brilliant outing for the Bryan Singer team. Still, I don't believe it will hold a candle to the Marvel or DC Cinematic Universes. But, let's see what they have to say about the science vs religion debate in superhero story-form, again.

18. Zoolander 2 

Here comes Blue Steel again. I just love watching Ben Stiller act foolishly. And the trailer looks like they've captured the idiocy of these characters, even fifteen years later. And of course, Will Ferrell threatens to steal the show along with the addition of numerous other cameos and the silliest characters you can think of.

19. The Jungle Book 

The Jungle Book? Its coming back? Yes. And it looks like it will actually do justice to the original. With this new form of animation, the jungles of India and the dark, wild, and fun characters of the Jungle Book can come back with a new vibrancy, and detail never before seen. And while I don't think it'll be the best film of 2016, I do think it looks gorgeously put together and it could even be worthy for my daughter to see.

20. The Huntsman Winter's War 

At first, I was going to ignore this film due to the disappointment that was "Snow White and the Huntsman". Why they picked Kristen Stewart to be Snow White, I cannot say. But they really botched a lot more than that essential casting choice in that film.

But the new trailer for this new film really brings back the things that DID work in the Snow White film... Charlize Theron and Chris Hemsworth (who was clearly underutilized). Then they added some even more incredible actors... Emily Blunt and Jessica Chastain! The story looks compelling as well, as opposed to simply, "a deposed princess trying to regain her throne," or something like that. This appears to have much more internal conflict and mystery to it. So, we will see if it performs, and if it can bring back some of the charm of the once-glorious Disney fairy tales.

Jon's Top Fifteen of 2015

Here the Top 15 Films of 2015, according to me. That said, I haven't seen every critically acclaimed film of this year. And despite my objections that I watch too many films, as a filmmaker I take exception to that accusation. I need to watch films... so I can make these lists for you people! LOL. Joking. 

My research wouldn't be complete without attending the Movie of the Month every month and watching additional films that inspire me and inform me on what good filmmaking looks like. Thank you to everyone who has participated in my film watching and filmmaking journey this year. Next year we have even MORE film fun planned!

So without further delay, here's my Top 15 Films of 2015, along with films of merit!

Jon's Top 15 Films of 2015

1. Mad Max: Fury Road

2. Inside Out

3. Beasts of No Nation

4. Star Wars The Force Awakens

5. The Martian

6. Ex Machina

7. Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

8. The Hateful Eight

9. Sicario

10. It Follows

11. Ant-Man

12. Avengers: Age of Ultron

13. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

14. What We Do In The Shadows

15. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Films of great merit, but that didn't quite make my list this year:

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Spy

Furious 7

The Visit

Crimson Peak

While We're Young

Spectre

Lost River

The Final Girls

A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night

Spring

Me & Earl & the Dying Girl

The Gift

Z for Zachariah

Jurassic World

The Good Dinosaur

Predestination

Cinderella

Buzzard

So. I saw these films and rated them from best, to great, to not as great. But here's plenty of great films I haven't seen yet from 2015. I have even been known to change my list after the fact after watching a few incredible films months after the year has ended. Here's a list of films I plan to watch. If there's any other films you might recommend I add to my list, or a film or two you wish I'd see right away, let me know in the comments or on my Facebook.

So, here's my List of... Movies I Really Need to Watch But Still Haven't Seen Yet (from 2015):

The Revenant, Creed, Amomalisa, Black Mass, Room, The Peanuts Movie, Brooklyn, Amy, Love & Mercy, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bone Tomahawk, Dope, Steve Jobs, Everest, Spotlight, Carol, Macbeth, Joy, Bridge of Spies, Trumbo, Mistress America, The Walk, Infinitely Polar Bear, Pawn Sacrifice, Chi-raq, Straight Outta Compton, The Big Short, Shaun the Sheep, Paddington, Red Army, The End of the Tour, Trainwreck, By the Sea. 

These are probably films you should see as well. There's a ton of remaining films from 2015 that I want to see, but I haven't been able to. And obviously, there were lots of films I saw but I just didn't like. That's just how these things go. 

I can't wait to get into 2016 films and finish up my watching from 2015 films. And very soon I will deliver a list of my most Anticipated Films of 2016!

The 2015 Summer Movie Wager: Results

The 2015 Summer Movie Wager was quite a surprise. So many films surprised us. So many films bombed, unexpectedly. We can hope these results will give Hollywood the proper direction to improve, but this hardly ever happens. The fact is, money in Hollywood speaks the loudest. That is the purpose in itself, not to make films... much less good ones. 

For example, I found Jurassic World to be a less than stellar film. Not much there of any real value to chew on. Just nostalgic flim flam. Much of the world was intoduced to two new stars... Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard. And some new CG creations. Not much else to see here. 

However, because this film blew away box office records, nothing any of us predicted, Hollywood may assume that we want to see big CGI dinosaurs and ever more reboots, rehashes, sequels, etc. At least the 'rebootitis' that Hollywood has acquired (transforming into 'franchisitis') seems to be working for them. But the belief that we want to see more dinosaurs may be misguided.

So, every year I participate in the Summer Movie Wager to see if my predictions can get close to the reality. I think I did much better last year. But, first lets look at my predictions.

My 2015 Summer Movie Wager

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron

2. Minions

3. Jurassic World

4. Ant-Man

5. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation

6. Mad Max: Fury Road

7. Ted 2

8. Magic Mike XXL

9. Inside Out

10. Tomorrowland

Dark horses:

Terminator Genisys

Fantastic Four

Man from UNCLE

Dark Horses are for the purpose of hedging your bets. Hoping at least that one of these films may make it if your predictions didnt quite pan out. None of my Dark Horses made ANY progress. Surprisingly, All Dark Horses did badly in the USA, but at least Terminator did well internationally. But the Fantastic Four is one of the biggest upsets this year. And I have been surprised at how poorly Man from UNCLE has performed. It was a really fun film!

So, lets look at the REAL results of what occurred this summer. Here are the top ten films by domestic box office for May-Early Sept (Labor day weekend) 2015:

Domestic Box Office May-Early Sept 2015:

1. Jurassic World 

2. Avengers: Age of Ultron 

3. Inside Out 

4. Minions 

5. Pitch Perfect 2 

6. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation 

7. Ant-Man 

8. San Andreas 

9. Mad Max: Fury Road 

10. Straight Outta Compton 

--------------------

Other films of note (in order of DBO performance):

11. Spy

12. Trainwreck

13. Tomorrowland

14. Terminator Genisys 

15. Ted 2 

16. Pixels

17. Magic Mike XXL  

18. Vacation

19. Fantastic Four

20. Man From U.N.C.L.E.

I was, of course, surprised by Jurassic World's performance, as well as Inside Out, Pitch Perfect 2, San Andreas, Straight Outta Compton. Movies I was dissapointed by include: Tomorrowland, Terminator Genisys, Ted 2, Fantastic Four, Man From U.N.C.L.E..

Here's how they score the wager:

• Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

The rest of the scoring goes like this:

• 10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
• 7 points if your pick was only one spot away from where it ended up
• 5 points if it was two spots away
• 3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10
• 1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don’t get 13+3, you only get 13.

So, dissappointingly, this gave me these points... 

7 points each for Avengers and for Mission Impossible (1 place away)=14
5 points each for Jurassic World and for Minions (2 places away)=10 
3 points each for Inside Out, Ant-Man, and Mad Max: Fury Road (on the list)=9

14+10+9=33 points. This is HALF the score I made last year. Ooooops! ;)

I guess the results this year were NOT as easily predicted as I thought. There were so many wildcards like Pitch Perfect and Ted 2 and Magic Mike. Not to mention, no one expected "Straight Outta Compton" or films like "Spy" to do so well!

Did you participate? What were YOUR results??

Discovering the Phases of Successful Crowdfunding for Indy Filmmakers

So, in my journey to make a feature film I've been noticing all the different types of projects that get crowdfunded and seem to grow. As it comes to indy, no budget-to-low budget projects, the ones that seem to grow are the ones that do so through multiple PHASES. In other words, start small. Don't try to make a feature right away- but instead put something online- anything. Ask for money at a certain point- or get support to help you with SPECIFIC goals. These goals are one puzzle piece in a larger, bigger project. But each piece is what you focus on NOW. If you have a snag, either you change how you relate to the bigger project or you change projects, at least temporarily.

One puzzle piece at a time.

So, Ive been learning this lately trying to apply it to my currently germinating projects. As a result, here's the theory...

1. Write a treatment for a FEATURE.
2. Begin to write the feature script. (Right now I'm working on "The Good Grief" primarily)
3. Write a PROMO TRAILER script for the feature project.
4. Shoot the promo trailer.
5. In process of writing the feature- write a SHORT which is a snippet, a distillation, or a powerful scene in the feature, (but doesn't give away the ending).
6. Use promo trailer to help fundraising for the short.
7. Shoot the short.
8. Finish the feature script.
9. Use short to help fundraising for the feature.
10. Shoot the feature.

You can see that each phase is about rolling any support for your smaller project into a larger project.

As a filmmaker, you must make sure that this initial IDEA is interesting and good enough to build this amount of hype and prolonged interest. Otherwise, someone like me would get bored and want to move on after the first project.

What is your feeling about this? Do you think its a good idea to 'break up' a larger project into numerous smaller ones? Or does this make it seem even more complicated to you?

The 2015 Summer Movie Wager

Hi everybody! It is a tradition two years in the making for me to participate in the Summer Movie Wager which happens every year beginning on May 1 and finishing at the end of August. Just like last year, I am participating in the wager to predict the 10 biggest blockbuster films by their domestic gross!

The rules for the wager are posted here. Slashfilm.com is also participating in the wager. Here is their article and their wagers.

Here are my top ten movies including my three darkhorse films.
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
2. Minions
3. Jurassic World
4. Ant-Man
5. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Ted 2
8. Magic Mike XXL
9. Inside Out
10. Tomorrowland

Darkhorses
1. Terminator: Genisys
2. The Fantastic Four
3. Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Last year I made 66 points out of a possible 106 points! Not too shabby! Not good but not shabby. We will see how well I do this year.

What will be YOUR wager?? You should post it quickly or else you may be influenced by the box office results of currently screening films. So what are you waiting for? Make your best guesses!!